Take Control: Scenario Planning and Backcasting Guide

What Do You Really Want?

How often do we ask ourselves, “What do I really want?” It’s a question that can seem simple on the surface, yet when we dig deeper, it often leaves us feeling overwhelmed. I’ve asked myself this countless times. And, like many of us, I found it easier to list what I didn’t want rather than what I truly desired. Friends, family, teachers, and colleagues ask this question, too, and often, we fumble with vague answers, unsure how to articulate what our hearts long for.

The truth is that identifying what we really want can feel like a never-ending journey of trial and error. We experiment with different jobs, study new fields, start and stop hobbies—all in search of that one thing that brings a sense of purpose and fulfilment.

In this article, I’ll share two powerful tools—Scenario Planning and Backcasting—that have helped me map my path forward. You’ll learn how to apply them in your own life to shape a future that aligns with your goals and values. Additionally, I’ll highlight the importance of reflection because, without reflecting on these experiences, we risk falling into the same patterns and feeling stuck or unsure of our next step.

Why Mapping Your Future Feels So Hard, and How to Change That

Take a common scenario: you’re stuck in a job that doesn’t inspire you, unsure whether to stay for security or pursue something more fulfilling. The uncertainty is daunting, and fear of making the wrong choice often leads to staying put—trapped in a loop of indecision.

Let me share my personal story. I’ve worked across various industries, pursued multiple degrees, and constantly sought new challenges. I’m someone who gets bored quickly after mastering something, so I kept moving from one thing to the next, hoping that the next project, job, or degree would be “it.” And the truth is, simply doing new things isn’t enough. Without taking the time to reflect on WHY something excites or bores you, you end up falling into the same patterns over and over again, chasing temporary interests without gaining clarity on what truly matters to you.

Strategic Tools for Clarity: Scenario Planning and Backcasting

One of the most significant turning points in my life came when everything seemed to fall apart. I had a business, a marriage, and what I thought was a stable life. But when these things crumbled, I realised I had hit my “glass ceiling.” Suddenly, everything I had built no longer worked. I had to take a hard look at myself and admit that no one was coming to save me—I had to save myself while seeking the right support along the way. This realisation led me to make the bold decision to study abroad, reset, and rebuild. It was one of the best decisions I’ve ever made, and through it, I gained clarity and direction.

Through that journey, I discovered two powerful tools that helped me navigate uncertainty: Scenario Planning and Backcasting. These strategic tools, initially used in military and business contexts, can be just as effective for personal life. They helped me map out a vision for my future and break free from the cycles of feeling lost. Now, I want to share them with you. If these methods resonate, I encourage you to apply them to your own life. They can serve as a compass, guiding you through uncertainty and helping you take actionable steps toward your ultimate desires.

Using Business Strategy Tools in Your Personal Life

In business, companies use strategic tools like Scenario Planning and Backcasting to navigate uncertain futures and plan for success. However, these same tools can be just as powerful when applied to personal life, especially for students and young professionals who are still figuring out their next steps. Whether you’re making career decisions, deciding where to live, or planning your financial future, these tools can help you bring clarity to your vision so you’re not just reacting to life as it happens—but proactively shaping it.

Think of it like this: having a long-term vision is like having a compass for your life. Getting comfortable with these tools takes time, but once you start seeing the big picture, the smaller details will become easier to manage.


Scenario Planning: Preparing for Multiple Outcomes

Scenario Planning is all about exploring different “what if” situations and mapping out several plausible futures based on your current choices.

By mapping out the possible outcomes for each option, you can think about how you’d handle both the positives and negatives. This exercise can give you the confidence to make a decision that feels right for you, knowing you’ve considered all possibilities.

Just like with cooking, where the same ingredients create different results, your skills and experiences can lead to different futures depending on how you use them. Let me take a simple analogy from one of my kitchen conversations at Brunel University. We were in the shared kitchen, discussing what we could cook with basic ingredients like rice and chicken. My Indian friends suggested chicken curry, my Zimbabwean friend talked about deep-fried chicken with fried rice, and I mentioned chicken rice using boiled chicken broth as a Vietnamese. With the same ingredients, we came up with different dishes, reflecting our cultural backgrounds, preferences, and experiences.

The same principle applies to life decisions: with the same resources—your skills, experiences, and interests—you can create entirely different futures depending on goals and capabilities. By considering different scenarios, you can prepare for the outcomes of various decisions and choose the path that best aligns with your values.

Aligning Scenarios with Your Values and Vision

The scenarios you create should reflect your strengths, skills, and personal interests. Additionally, each scenario needs to align with your values and resonate with your vision for the future. Gathering information through research, analysing your options, and seeking advice from those with your best interests at heart is essential.

However, be cautious when considering advice from family and close friends. While they may love you, they may not fully understand what’s best for you or your aspirations. Ultimately, you are responsible for your future. No one else—neither your mentors, family, nor friends—can make decisions for you. It is YOU who must take charge of your destiny. And remember, in doing so, you must hold yourself accountable for those decisions.

One key question to ask yourself throughout this process is: “Why do I want these scenarios to happen?” If you can’t answer your WHY, it’s a sign that you may need to dig deeper into your values and motivations. Then, return to the Scenario Planning process to reevaluate. Another critical point: limit your scenarios to a maximum of four. While it’s tempting to explore many possibilities, focusing on just the best four options avoids the problem of having too many choices, which can lead to analysis paralysis.

A Practical Example of Scenario Planning

Imagine you’re considering a move after graduation. You could be feeling stuck and unsure about what the right choice is. Scenario Planning breaks this decision into manageable options:

  • Scenario 1: Stay in your current city: This might mean keeping your part-time job, staying close to family and friends, but potentially missing out on new career opportunities.
  • Scenario 2: Move to another city in your country: There may be more job opportunities in your field, but you’ll need to build a new social circle and adjust to a different environment.
  • Scenario 3: Move abroad: This could offer incredible personal growth and new experiences, but you’ll face challenges like adapting to a new culture and being far from home.
  • Scenario 4: Create your own scenario here: Personalise this to reflect your unique values, interests, and goals.

Advantages of Scenario Planning

  • Helps you mentally prepare for different possible outcomes.

  • Builds confidence in decision-making by exploring various options.

  • Encourages deeper self-reflection and analysis of your goals and values.

Disadvantages of Scenario Planning

  • It can be time-consuming and requires a lot of thought and effort.

  • Too many scenarios can overwhelm you. Limit yourself to the four most relevant options to avoid decision fatigue.

Backcasting: Mapping Your Steps from the Future to the Present

Scenario Planning equips you to anticipate multiple possibilities, what if you already know the outcome you desire? That’s where Backcasting steps in, offering a way to work backwards from your goal and helping you outline the steps needed to get there.

In other words, you first imagine your desired outcome and then reverse-engineer the steps required to get there, starting from the end goal and working back to your present situation. Backcasting provides a clear path to your goal, but it’s essential to remain flexible, as life may throw unexpected challenges your way.

Developing a Backcasting Action Plan

Here’s how to apply Backcasting in a more structured way:

  • Define Your Ultimate Goal: Start by asking yourself, “What do I truly want?” This needs to be a clear, specific outcome, such as reaching financial independence, running your own business, or living in a specific country. The clearer the goal, the easier it will be to work backwards.

  • Envision the Details of That Future: Imagine yourself having achieved this goal. What does your life look like? Consider the financial, emotional, social, and physical aspects of your ideal future.

  • Work Backward in Stages: Once you’ve envisioned the end result, break it down into key milestones. What needs to happen 5, 10, or even 20 years before your goal to ensure you reach it?

  • Create Short- and Medium-Term Goals: Each milestone should consist of short-term and medium-term actions that move you closer to the end goal. These actions might include further education, building specific skills, forming new habits, or making financial investments.

  • Evaluate and Adjust: Like Scenario Planning, Backcasting requires flexibility. As life unfolds, you may need to adjust the steps while still aiming for your ultimate goal. Regularly reassess your progress and be willing to make changes as needed.

Example of Career Development Using Backcasting

Let’s say your ultimate goal is to become the CEO of a tech startup. Here’s how Backcasting could map out:

  • At 45: You’ve reached your goal of leading a successful company in your chosen field.
    • Milestones: You have 20 years of experience, a strong professional network, and a reputation as an industry leader.

  • At 40: You’re a key executive at a midsized company, managing a significant department or project.
    • Milestones: Gain management experience, build leadership skills, and maintain relationships with mentors in the industry.

  • At 35: You’ve started your own side business and successfully managed multiple projects.
    • Milestones: Work in different roles, take on leadership responsibilities and build a diverse portfolio of skills.

  • Today: Start working on the foundational skills and knowledge that will allow you to grow into leadership roles.
    • Milestones: Enroll in leadership programs, seek out mentorship, take on challenging roles, and expand your professional network.

This approach helps you take control of your career path, making every step deliberate and aligned with your long-term vision. Please keep in mind that the above is my made-up example to show you how to apply the Backcasting technique; only you know what steps are appropriate for you.

Advantages of Backcasting

  • Clarity: Helps you define clear, actionable milestones that are directly aligned with your end goal.

  • Motivation: By visualising your future, you stay motivated to achieve smaller steps, knowing they contribute to a bigger picture.

  • Flexibility: While Backcasting is goal-oriented, it allows you to pivot and adjust along the way without losing sight of your ultimate target.

  • Focus: It narrows down your choices, helping you avoid distractions that don’t contribute to your end goal.

Disadvantages of Backcasting

  • Requires a Clear Goal: Backcasting works best when you have a specific long-term goal. Without clarity on where you want to go, applying this technique can be challenging.

  • Lacks Flexibility for Unknown Variables: Backcasting works backwards from a specific endpoint and may not account for unexpected changes or disruptions in life.

  • Challenging to Implement: Thinking too far ahead can feel overwhelming or impractical for people who tend to focus on immediate concerns.

In both techniques, they allow you to reflect on existing resources and capabilities and identify which resources you need to acquire or which capabilities you need to develop further to achieve the desired outcomes.


Applying and Combining Backcasting and Scenario Planning: My Personal Journey

In my experience, Scenario Planning can be time-consuming, especially when done alone. At times, I felt overwhelmed with the amount of information to analyse. That’s where Backcasting came in as a supportive framework to enhance my decision-making. I started with my Ultimate Desired Future—my life mission—and worked backward. I then developed four scenarios that eventually led to that ultimate goal. Each scenario had an action plan outlining what steps needed to be taken to bring it to life.

For example, when I was in the middle of my MBA program, I mapped out four possible scenarios. I had specific timelines for each, and I knew if one scenario didn’t work out, I could seamlessly activate the next. These detailed action plans made me flexible yet focused on the ultimate vision.

Here’s a visual example of my combination of Backcasting and Scenario Planning (for my coursework in the MBA module: Managing For The Future)

In this diagram, my goal is “Continuous Personal Improvement through Learning” combined with the mission of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 4: Enhancing quality education in Vietnam and worldwide. I mapped out four distinct scenarios, each with specific steps leading to this ultimate goal:

  • Scenario 1: Paid Traineeship at European Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO), Spain.

  • Scenario 2: Business Venture for a Gamification Education App (GEA), UK.

  • Scenario 3: Corporate Jobs, UK/Europe.

  • Scenario 4: Fully Funded Ph.D., UK.

By using Backcasting, I was able to figure out what actions were required to make any of these scenarios a reality. Depending on how things unfolded, I could shift from one scenario to another without losing sight of my ultimate goal. This method helped me manage the uncertainty that often accompanies life transitions.

My example of action plans for each scenario: I encourage you to develop yours based on your research and analyses

Reflection is Key: Start Journaling

You might wonder: How do I start reflecting? The answer is simple: journaling.

Journaling has been a transformative practice in my life, helping me gain clarity in ways I never expected. Whether you prefer typing your thoughts on a laptop or using a notebook, make journaling a daily habit. This practice allows you to track how certain experiences make you feel, how you think about them, and reflect critically—without judgment—on your thoughts and behaviours.

By reflecting on what energises and drains you, you gain valuable insights into your core values and passions. These reflections form the foundation for greater clarity. Observing these patterns gives you the power to improve, change, or break them. As the saying goes, “You can only improve what you can measure.” Start measuring your thoughts and feelings; soon, you’ll see patterns emerge.

In your journal, ask yourself: “What resources do I have to explore different futures?” or “What ultimate goal am I working toward, and how can I break that down?”

At first, this process may feel abstract, but the results will become clear with consistent practice. Journaling is a tool for self-awareness and growth, so start small today by jotting down your thoughts and reflecting on your experiences.

Why Acting is Better than Reacting

In life, we often face decisions where we feel torn, uncertain, and fearful of making the wrong choice. For instance, you might feel trapped in a job that no longer inspires you but hesitate to leave because the security feels safe. I’ve been there myself, debating whether to stay or take the leap into something new. Over time, I’ve learned that while life is unpredictable, it’s far better to act than to react.

When you act, you are in control of your behaviour and the decisions you make. When you react, you let external factors dictate your emotions, which often leads to regret and impulsive yet regretful decisions, especially in moments of crisis. To avoid this, you must prepare for different circumstances and see them for what they are—neither right nor wrong, but simply different perspectives. Even if the outcome is not what you anticipated, accept it and focus on what you can learn and how you can improve moving forward. The key here is transforming negatives into positives. Instead, prepare yourself for different scenarios so that no matter what happens, you can adapt and act confidently.

I want to emphasise one crucial element: detach from the outcome because you cannot control it. What you can control is the effort you put in. Give 100% (or even 200%), and let the results unfold as they will. This mindset reduces the frustration of unmet expectations and allows you to focus on what you can improve instead of stressing over things out of your hands.

Final Thoughts: Taking Control of Your Future

When it comes to navigating life’s uncertainties, having a clear vision and a flexible plan is essential. Scenario Planning allows you to explore multiple futures and prepare for whatever might come your way, while Backcasting enables you to “think forward, reason backwards”. Backcasting serves as a technique to create a road map that leads directly to your ultimate goal.

By mastering the art of applying Scenario Planning and Backcasting, you can take charge of your future, whether choosing the right career path, deciding where to live, or working towards long-term goals like financial independence. When combined, these tools empower you to stay adaptable without losing sight of what truly matters to you.

By taking the time to map out different possibilities and the steps required to reach your goals, you create a blueprint for your future—one that balances flexibility with purpose. You’ll feel more confident in your decisions, knowing that you’ve planned for the unknown and laid the groundwork for long-term success.

No matter how uncertain life may seem, remember you’re not just a passenger on the journey. Now that you understand how these tools work, reflect on your life path today. Use Scenario Planning to explore your possibilities and Backcasting to create your roadmap. With these tools, you’re not just reacting to life—you’re taking charge, designing the future you want to live in.

My friends, the future isn’t something that just happens to you, it is YOU who have the power to shape it. 🌟

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